When do MNCs fail to learn from prior failure experience?

Do multinational corporations (MNCs) learn from their prior failures in international joint ventures (IJVs)? When does decision makers’ cognitive inability hinder MNCs from learning through their prior failure experiences? In the context of IJV survival in subsequent IJV entries, this study compares predictions made from two distinct theoretical perspectives, both of which belong to the behavioural school in strategy literature. According to the performance feedback perspective, MNCs may effectively learn from their prior failure experiences gained in familiar decision‐making contexts. On the other hand, according to the cognitive bias perspective, MNCs may not be able to effectively learn from their prior failure experiences if they inaccurately interpret the causes of their prior failures. The results provide partial support for the notion that MNC decision makers may not be able to effectively learn from their prior failures because of their cognitive biases. Copyright © 2015 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

General convex order on risk aggregation

Using a general notion of convex order, we derive general lower bounds for risk measures of aggregated positions under dependence uncertainty, and this in arbitrary dimensions and for heterogeneous models. We also prove sharpness of the bounds obtained when each marginal distribution has a decreasing density. The main result answers a long-standing open question and yields an insight in optimal dependence structures. A numerical algorithm provides bounds for quantities of interest in risk management. Furthermore, our numerical results suggest that the bounds obtained in this paper are generally sharp for a broader class of models.     

Stochastic seat allocation models for passenger rail transportation under customer choice

We study the seat allocation problem for passenger rail revenue management, in which a rail operator attempts to determine the optimal quantity of seats to be allocated to each cabin class for each train service. We formulate the problem with single-stage and multi-stage decisions as two stochastic programming models that incorporate passengers’ choice behavior. We transform the stochastic models into equivalent deterministic mathematical programs that are easy to solve. Then, we form a variety of seat allocation polices from the optimal solutions to the seat allocation models. A number of simulation tests are offered to test the policies.     

The impact of partner diversity within multiparty international joint ventures

Despite the significant role that multiparty international joint ventures (MPIJVs) play within multinational enterprises, we know little about the significant challenges associated with the management of these ventures. Therefore, we combine the Resource-based View of the Firm and Transaction Cost Economics to investigate the effects of the key aspects of partner diversity (i.e., variety, balance, and disparity) on MPIJV dissolution. We test our hypotheses using a dataset of 248 MPIJVs in China. We find empirical support for a U-curve shaped effect of variety and a negative linear effect of balance on MPIJV dissolution.     

Economic Impacts of Improved Connectivity for ASEAN: An Application of the Geographical Simulation Model

We compare the prioritized projects of the Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity (MPAC) and the Comprehensive Asia Development Plan (CADP) by utilizing the Institute of Developing Economies/Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia Geographical Simulation Model. The prioritized projects of the MPAC mainly focus on specific hard or soft infrastructure projects connecting one remote area of an ASEAN member state to another and thus fail to capture the full potential of the infrastructure because of neglected important links within a state. On the other hand, the CADP emphasizes the importance of economic corridors or linkages between a large cluster and another cluster. Our simulation analysis shows that CADP projects will result in an addition to gross domestic product (GDP) of $US 1544bn over the period from 2021 to 2030 (in 2010 dollars) or an impact on ASEAN countries that is 12 times larger than MPAC projects. The results strongly suggest that the CADP projects should be adopted and implemented to fully realize the potential economic growth of the ASEAN countries. Moreover, the CADP will contribute more to narrowing the development gaps among the ASEAN countries than MPAC prioritized projects.     

MONOPOLISTIC LOCATION CHOICE IN A TWO‐SIDED HOTELLING MODEL

We analyse the optimal location choice of a monopolistic firm that operates two arbitrarily located platforms on a two‐sided market. By extending the traditional Hotelling framework, we show that the optimal platform locations are equivalent to the one‐sided benchmark if both sides are either restricted to single‐ or multi‐homing. In the mixed case (one side single‐homes, the other one multi‐homes), the optimal platform locations are in line with the respective symmetric case. If the monopolist is restricted to choosing the same location on either side of the market, the optimal locations are determined by the relative profitability of the market sides.     

Incentives and teacher effort

Few would contest that teachers are a very important determinant of how much students learn in school, and how to improve teacher performance has been the focus of lively policy debate in both rich and poor countries. This paper examines how teacher incentives, both pecuniary and non‐pecuniary, correlate with teacher effort. Using school survey data from Lao PDR, we estimate measures of teacher effort, including the number of hours that teachers spend preparing for classes and teacher provision of private tutoring outside of class hours, which are not the typical measures used in previous research. Estimation results fit well under the standard labour supply framework and indicate that greater teacher effort is associated with non‐pecuniary incentives such as more teacher autonomy over teaching materials and monitoring as measured by the existence of an active parent – teacher association and the ability of school principals to dismiss teachers. Methodologically, this paper provides a detailed derivation of a simultaneous OLS‐probit model with school random effects that can jointly estimate teacher work hours and tutoring provision.     

基于多智能体的城市生态保护红线多情景模拟

生态红线划定是城市可持续发展的基础,目前的生态红线划定主要采用国家生态红线划分标准来进行,没有考虑与城市建设用地空间的相互协调,为了解决这一问题,以多智能体系统理论为基础构建"城市建设用地—生态保护红线"协调的决策模型,协调城市建设发展与生态环境保护的现实需要,确定不同保护和发展模式下的城市生态红线。以鄂州市作为研究区域进行实验,模拟了不同生态保护模式下的生态保护红线划定情况,结果表明在生态红线划定中考虑多主体的决策因素有助于协调优化城市生态环境保护与城市发展的矛盾。     

How effective are heuristic solutions for electricity planning in developing countries

Heuristic algorithms have been widely used to provide computationally feasible means of exploring the cost effective balance between grid versus off grid sources for universal electrification in developing countries. By definition in such algorithms however, global optimality is not guaranteed. We present a computationally intensive but globally optimal mixed integer non-linear programming (MINLP) model for electricity planning and use it in a Monte Carlo simulation procedure to test the relative performance of a widely used heuristic algorithm due to [28]. We show that the overall difference in cost is typically small suggesting that the heuristic algorithm is generally cost effective in many situations. However we find that the relative performance of the heuristic algorithm deteriorates with increasing degree of spatial dispersion of unelectrified settlements, as well as increasing spatial remoteness of the settlements from the grid network, suggesting that the effectiveness of the heuristic algorithm is context specific. Further, we find that allocation of off grid sources in the heuristic algorithm solution is often significantly greater than in the MINLP model suggesting that heuristic methods can overstate the role of off-grid solutions in certain situations.     

Technology‐push,market‐demand and the missing safety‐pull: a case study of American Airlines Flight 587

Through a critical case study of the crash of American Airlines Flight 587, this paper draws upon ‘the Social Shaping of Technology’ (SST) approach to offer a reconceptualisation of the technology‐push and market‐demand model for High‐Reliably Organisations (HROs), providing support for a third factor, called here a ‘safety‐pull’. A safety‐pull is defined as organisationally supported reflexivity in which technology innovators and frontline operators collaborate to consider the potential implications of adopting new technologies in HROs and the complex ways this change may impact human operators' work performance, often in risky and unanticipated ways. In contrast to accidents occurring solely as the result of individual operator error, analysing the safety‐pull provides a way to tease out the wide range of factors that can contribute to HRO failures and offers a new SST perspective through which to examine high‐risk operations.